Winning Sports Picks
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Alex Smart |
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| Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. Testing long term $79000.00 plus dime player run! |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 07, 2024 Tigers vs Guardians |
Guardians -118 at circa |
Lost $118.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Detroit's starter MAEDA is 11-20 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 in his career. (Team's Record) Maeda (1-1, 5.02 ERA) went 0-1 with a 7.64 ERA in his first four starts. My projections estimate the Guardians match up well vs Maeda and have the edge here. CLEVELAND is 10-3 against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season . Motown baseball has lost 4 straight while Cleveland has won 3 straight. Im riding that momentum in this spot play. MLB team (CLEVELAND) - top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season, after allowing 1 runs or less 3 straight games are 30-5 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. MLBl underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games, with a well rested bullpen - threw 3 innings or less over last 2 games are 8-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate. Play on Cleveland to win |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | May 07, 2024 Mavs vs Thunder |
Thunder -3½ -109 at BetVegas |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Dallas super star Doncic is dealing with a right knee sprain that has hindered him since just before the playoffs and Im sure its not getting better considering the amount of playing time hes getting. Im betting on the thunders Luguentz Dort slowing Doncic down and for the Thunder to have the edge here at home tonight. Note: The Thunder won three of the four meetings between the teams this season, including both matchups in Oklahoma City. Rinse and repeat is my call here tonight along with the cover. OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 ATS in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-14 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.4 . NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, on Tuesday nights are 3-37 L/5 seasons for a go against 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 07, 2024 Blue Jays vs Phillies |
Phillies -125 at circa |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Phillies have won six straight, 17 of their past 20 and 10 in a row at home and the best record in the majors at 25-11. With that said, lets ride their momentum here today against a Blue Jays side, that has lost 4 of their L/5 overall. Blue Jays starter BERRIOS is 21-36 (against the money line in road games after a loss in his career. (Team's Record) PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher like Berrios whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons. TORONTO is 1-8 ( against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season like the Phillies starter Sanchez ( THOMSON is 43-11 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of PHILADELPHIA. PHILADELPHIA is 27-12 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 42-14 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. MLB Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - below average NL hitting team (AVG .255 or less ) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or more ), in May games. are 53-16 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Phillies to win |
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| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 08, 2024 Angels vs Pirates |
Pirates -125 at SC Consensus |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Pittsburghs starter PEREZ is 21-6 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)PEREZ is also 14-3 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons He has seen his team win his L.3 appearances vs the Angels . The Angels entered Tuesday having lost 14 of their past 17 game and are fade material in this current form. I know they exploded yesterday, but now Im betting on immediate regression. LA ANGELS are 2-12 against the money line in day games this season LA ANGELS are 6-15 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or worse) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or more ), in May games are 42-9 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pirates to win |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |
